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Unemployment Rate Remained at 5.3%



The current unemployment rate is 5.3% as of July 2015, remaining unchanged from June, but falling from 5.5% in May 2015. The real unemployment rate remained at 10.5%. Both are reported monthly in the Jobs Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

The labor force participation rate also remained at 62.6%, down from 62.9% in May.That's when some people dropped out of the labor force, and the number of discouraged workers rose to 668,000.

 

The unemployment rate is getting closer to the 4% natural rate of unemployment. The number of long-term unemployed rose to 2.18 million, just slightly more than 25% of the unemployed.

This month, the unemployment rate and the current employment report told the same story, but that's not always the case. That's because they are taken from two different surveys, so you can't expect the numbers to always tie out. Also note that small variations of a tenth of a point here and there are not a cause for alarm. These are estimates, and they are revised as more data comes in. You want to look at longer-term trends, which appear over the course of several months.

Keep in mind that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. That's because employers resist hiring new workers until they are absolutely sure the economy will stay strong. Although it's not good for predicting trends, it's useful for confirming them.

Here are the unemployment rate statistics for every month since March 2007. There's also a link to annual unemployment rates since 1929.

2015 Unemployment by Month

  • January: Unemployment rose to 5.7%
  • February: The rate fell to 5.5%.
  • March: The rate remained at 5.5%.
  • April: Unemployment fell slightly, to 5.4%, as more people become employed, and around 20,000 left the labor force. 
  • May: The unemployment rate rose a bit, to 5.5%

2014 Unemployment by Month

  • January: 6.6% - Retail lost 12,900 seasonal workers since the holiday shopping season disappointed. Second, health care lost 6,000 jobs, after losing 4,000 in December. The lower rate was surprising, since more people went back into the labor force, and the participation rate improved to 63%. 
  • February: 6.7% - The labor force participation rate remained at 63%.  The stock market was mixed. Many investors think that economic data won't be clear until after the winter storms subside. However, economic growth was sluggish starting with Halloween retail sales. Other investors thought the Fed would beef up its Quantitative Easing purchases if the economy falters. Even though new Fed Chair Janet Yellen is more concerned about unemployment than inflation, the Fed knows it must withdraw liquidity while times are relatively good if it's to have any dry powder ready for another recession.
  • March: 6.6% - The LFPR improved to 63.25.
  • April: 6.2% - There were 9.8 million Americans actively searched for a job, and a third have been looking for more than 6 months. Another 2.1 million people haven't looked for work in the past month, including 697,000 who are discouraged. There's 7.3 million who work part-time, but prefer full-time. The LFPR dropped to 62.8%
  • May: 6.3% - The LFPR remained at 62.8%.
  • June: 6.1% - Of the 9.5 million Americans still looking for work, 3.1 million have been looking for more than 6 months. An additional 7.5 million are working part-time, but would prefer a full-time job. There's another 2 million people who are jobless, but haven't looked for work in the past month. Of those, 676,000 have just given up. 
  • July: 6.2% - The LFPR rose to 62.9% as 200,000 people started looking for a job. There are 3.1 million long-term unemployed (looking more than six months), nearly a third of the total 9.7 million. There 741,000 discouraged workers. 
  • August: 6.1% - There were 2.96 million long-term unemployed, and 775,000 discouraged workers, which sent the real unemployment rate to 12% even. 
  • September: 5.9% - This was the first time unemployment fell below 6% since the recession. The participation rate fell slightly, to 62.7%, while the real unemployment rate dropped to 11.8%.
  • October: 5.7% - People returned to the labor force. The participation rate rose to 62.8%, and the real unemployment rate fell to 11.5%. 
  • November: 5.8% - The LFPR rose to 62.9%.
  • December: 5.6% - The LFPR dropped to 62.7%.

Past U.S. Unemployment Statistics

  • 2013: 6.7%  -The rate remained above 7% until December, when it fell to 6.6%. Meanwhile, the stock market rose by nearly 30% as businesses reported strong earnings. 
  • 2012: 7.9% - Discouraged workers returned to the labor force, keeping the rate above 8% until right before the Presidential elections. The threat of the fiscal cliff suppressed job growth for the rest of the year.
  • 2011: 8.5% - Nearly half of the unemployed had been so for six months or more.
  • 2010: 9.3%  -  Unemployment remained stubbornly above 9.3% the entire year.
  • 2009: 9.9% - Unemployment peaked at 10% in October, the first time it it double digits since the 1982 recession
  • 2008: 7.3%  - The rate was only 5.0% in January, but quickly rose to 7.3% by year end.
  • 2007: 5.0% - Unemployment remained below 5% until December, giving no clue of the impending recession.
  • U.S. Unemployment Rate by Year - All the way back to 1929
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