The start of the NBA and college basketball season, gives sport bettors the opportunity to make money everyday instead of just waiting for the weekend football games.
Handicapping the NBA takes a different approach than handicapping football.
Experienced handicappers will always have a formula for making what is known as a "power rating" for each team in the league.
This is a way of measuring the strength of a team against another and more importantly a means to hopefully find a variation in the line made from these power ratings to the one posted at the sportbook.
Making a "team" power rating in the NBA will not normally give you a accurate method for finding the better of the two teams, and especially an accurate point line.
Since opening my Sport Betting Advisory Service in 1991, I have rewarded my clients with 15 consecutive winning seasons in both college and NBA basketball.
In 2005 I won the NBA handicapping championship at out monitoring service.
The key to winning in the NBA is making a power rating on "each player" rather than an overall rating on a team based on wins, losses and point differential.
There is hardly a night that goes by, that there isn't at least one key player out of the lineup for each game.
This is much more impactual in basketball than in football or baseball where you have 11 or 9 players making up a starting team.
In Baskets with only 5 on the floor, missing one key player can make a huge difference in the outcome of a game.
You take away a center that is averaging say 15 rebounds per game, 5 blocked shots, 15 points and 5 assists, you have lost a lot of potential points.
Sure the replacement is going to get something, afterall he is a pro also, but knowing the difference of what the replacement may contribute compared to what the starter would have contributed is the entire key to winning in the NBA.
If the line on a game is say -5 points and the team that is favored is missing a starter, you may find that the replacement for that starter is going to average maybe 2 overall points less per game than the starter, you have already found a 2 point edge.
Now the line should really be -3 or -7 depending on which team the key player is out.
The oddsmaker will usually make some arbitrary adjustment to the line, but I can assure you they do not know exactly what the expected difference is in actuality.
There have been times when I have found a 10 or 12 point differential in a game, what a huge advantage to the bettor.
So if this is such a great tool for winning, why isn't everyone doing it?...
Two reasons.
First, most don't know how to figure the exact number of points per game each player is worth to the team based on the amount of time on the floor.
Second and probably the major reason is, "time".
It takes many hours to keep up with the daily stats of each player in the NBA, and then do the calculating for each player and the replacement for each game missing a starter.
I will spend on average 4 to 6 hours per day handicapping one nights schedule depending on the number of games.
Making a power rating for each player involves the tracking of 6 key statistics...
points scored per minute played, rebounds per minute played, assists per minute played, blocked shots per minutes played, steals per minutes played, turnovers per minute played.
Notice the key here is "per minutes played".
If a starter is averaging say 20 points per game and is playing 40 minutes, he is averaging 0.
50 points per minute.
If his replacement is averaging say 6 points per game and playing 15 minutes, he is averaging 0.
40 points per minute.
So if the replacement is forced to play the 40 minutes the starter would have played, you can figure he will score 16 points while the starter would have scored on average 20 points.
This process is repeated for each of the above mentioned statistical categories with all the point differences added up to get the final difference between the two players.
Knowing who will be available for the game for each team, you simply add up all the individual player power ratings which will give you a overall team power rating.
You can then determine the better of the two teams, and most importantly, by how many points.
This will also give you a big edge on making the "total" line on the game.
You can use the actual points scored plus 1 point for rebounds, steals, blocked shots and a minus 1 for fouls and turnovers..
..
It is a little more complex than this, but this will work, close enough.
If you have the time, you certainly can make big bucks betting basketball..
...
Handicapping the NBA takes a different approach than handicapping football.
Experienced handicappers will always have a formula for making what is known as a "power rating" for each team in the league.
This is a way of measuring the strength of a team against another and more importantly a means to hopefully find a variation in the line made from these power ratings to the one posted at the sportbook.
Making a "team" power rating in the NBA will not normally give you a accurate method for finding the better of the two teams, and especially an accurate point line.
Since opening my Sport Betting Advisory Service in 1991, I have rewarded my clients with 15 consecutive winning seasons in both college and NBA basketball.
In 2005 I won the NBA handicapping championship at out monitoring service.
The key to winning in the NBA is making a power rating on "each player" rather than an overall rating on a team based on wins, losses and point differential.
There is hardly a night that goes by, that there isn't at least one key player out of the lineup for each game.
This is much more impactual in basketball than in football or baseball where you have 11 or 9 players making up a starting team.
In Baskets with only 5 on the floor, missing one key player can make a huge difference in the outcome of a game.
You take away a center that is averaging say 15 rebounds per game, 5 blocked shots, 15 points and 5 assists, you have lost a lot of potential points.
Sure the replacement is going to get something, afterall he is a pro also, but knowing the difference of what the replacement may contribute compared to what the starter would have contributed is the entire key to winning in the NBA.
If the line on a game is say -5 points and the team that is favored is missing a starter, you may find that the replacement for that starter is going to average maybe 2 overall points less per game than the starter, you have already found a 2 point edge.
Now the line should really be -3 or -7 depending on which team the key player is out.
The oddsmaker will usually make some arbitrary adjustment to the line, but I can assure you they do not know exactly what the expected difference is in actuality.
There have been times when I have found a 10 or 12 point differential in a game, what a huge advantage to the bettor.
So if this is such a great tool for winning, why isn't everyone doing it?...
Two reasons.
First, most don't know how to figure the exact number of points per game each player is worth to the team based on the amount of time on the floor.
Second and probably the major reason is, "time".
It takes many hours to keep up with the daily stats of each player in the NBA, and then do the calculating for each player and the replacement for each game missing a starter.
I will spend on average 4 to 6 hours per day handicapping one nights schedule depending on the number of games.
Making a power rating for each player involves the tracking of 6 key statistics...
points scored per minute played, rebounds per minute played, assists per minute played, blocked shots per minutes played, steals per minutes played, turnovers per minute played.
Notice the key here is "per minutes played".
If a starter is averaging say 20 points per game and is playing 40 minutes, he is averaging 0.
50 points per minute.
If his replacement is averaging say 6 points per game and playing 15 minutes, he is averaging 0.
40 points per minute.
So if the replacement is forced to play the 40 minutes the starter would have played, you can figure he will score 16 points while the starter would have scored on average 20 points.
This process is repeated for each of the above mentioned statistical categories with all the point differences added up to get the final difference between the two players.
Knowing who will be available for the game for each team, you simply add up all the individual player power ratings which will give you a overall team power rating.
You can then determine the better of the two teams, and most importantly, by how many points.
This will also give you a big edge on making the "total" line on the game.
You can use the actual points scored plus 1 point for rebounds, steals, blocked shots and a minus 1 for fouls and turnovers..
..
It is a little more complex than this, but this will work, close enough.
If you have the time, you certainly can make big bucks betting basketball..
...
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