The Cardinals pitching staff has become well-known for its flame-throwing bullpen. The only problem is, the pen isn’t dishing out much heat lately.
Just a few seasons ago, the Redbirds boasted the likes of Jason Motte, Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, Mitchell Boggs, and so on. All relief pitchers who threw mid-to-upper 90’s fastballs. Add the likes of Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist, and Sam Freeman to the mix and the trend continued.
But over the years, baseball happened.
Motte got hurt and then signed with the Cubs. Boggs fell apart and got traded. Kelly was traded but not for ineffectiveness – more like inexperience. Martinez is expected to fill a rotation spot this year. Freeman is still trying to put it all together. And Siegrist struggled with nagging injuries last season before eventually becoming a liability.
Only Rosenthal continued his upward ascension with the St. Louis pen, claiming and retaining the closer’s role.
In fact, the last two seasons the Cardinals have needed a hard-throwing boost in the bullpen, they’ve eventually been forced to look outside the organization (John Axford in 2013, a Triple-A flyer on David Aardsma in 2014, and Jordan Walden for 2015). Sure, there are a couple of guys with the velocity to refuel the big league relief corp (Sam Tuivailala comes to mind), but none that seem major-league ready right this instant.
And that brings us to the current construction of the St. Louis bullpen.
Rosenthal, Seth Maness, and newcomers Matt Belisle and Jordan Walden appear to be locks. Left-handers Randy Choate, Sam Freeman, and Kevin Siegrist (assuming health and a return to form) also appear likely to fill spots and round out a 7-man pen.
The Cardinals could create a place for Marco Gonzalez, but it’s more likely that Mozeliak could trade one of his four lefthanders in a package deal to acquire depth, either for the bench or the starting rotation or both – and store Marco in Triple-A as the Cardinals’ sixth man. In fact, at the annual Winter Warm-Up in St. Louis, Mo said his left-handed bullpen depth was the most targeted aspect of his roster in potential trade talks with rival GMs.
It could also be the most preferable option for a roster heavy on questionable lefthanders and light on right-handed velocity. A trade to alleviate some of the left-handed logjam would create a space for a fire-balling acquisition.
That’s where things get interesting.
Former Cardinal John Axford recently signed a minor-league contract with the Rockies, so he’s out. Aardsma, recent Memphis Redbird in 2014, is planning to hold a showcase for teams soon, but one has to believe the Cardinals got all the eye-witness data they needed during his brief time with their organization.
And that brings us to a few very intriguing names.
Phil Coke is a mixed bag with his strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) dropping for two years in a row but his walks per nine innings (BB/9) stabilizing after a spike in 2013. His home runs are up, slightly, but his WHIP has dropped. Then again, his ERA is down and his innings pitched (IP) total is up, so there’s that. And a move to the National League would have to be considered a positive.
Of course, Joba Chamberlain is an option, too. After a season with the Tigers that saw his ERA sink to 3.16, his SO/9 rise to 8.4, and his WHIP drop to 1.286, Chamberlain remains an enticing choice. But enticing for whom?
For a team and a city that expects a certain attitude from its professional ballplayers, St. Louis wouldn’t seem to have much tolerance for a guy who once chastised Mariano Rivera for daring to shush him. Could he really capitulate to the likes of Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina?
There are a few other names out there – like Matt Lindstrom and Dustin McGowan – but let’s just jump right to the fun one.
Raise your hand if you’re in favor of bringing Chris Perez back to St. Louis for a comeback tour.
That’s right. Perez is floating around out there just waiting to get picked up. The good news? He still has his movement and velocity, and he’s picked up some pretty valuable closing experience at the big league level to boot. The bad news? He still struggles with control at times – and we’re not just talking about his mouth – and a few of his trends are heading in the wrong direction.
Perez put together three good seasons in Cleveland (2010 – 2012) before starting to slip. In 2013, his ERA (4.33) and WHIP (1.426) were career highs. They weren’t much better in 2014 with the Dodgers (4.27 ERA and 1.360 WHIP).
But here’s the thing – his strikeouts per nine innings were still up in 2013 (9.0) and his walks per nine (3.5) were lower than his career average (3.9). Yes, both took a hit in 2014 (7.6 SO/9 and 4.9 BB/9), but his SwStr% (strikes swung at and missed) rate was better in 2014 (8.7%) than it was in 2013 (7.9%), and both rates were better than his 2010 (7.6%) and 2011 (5.6%) rates in Cleveland.
Factor in a new team, new league, and new division – is it possible that 2014 was an anomaly and the 29-year old pitcher still has significant value? His pitches appear to be intact. Hitter contact rates on those pitches seem to be unchanged. In fact, maybe the most-telling downward trend is the percentage of pitches Chris throws in the strike zone.
From 2010 to 2012, the then Indians closer bounced between 50.6% and 52.7% pitches in the zone. But in 2013, that percentage dropped to 47.8% and 45.0% in 2014, both consecutive career lows.
It’s entirely possible Mozeliak and the Cardinals could view Perez as the pitcher they’ve always known – dynamic, hard stuff with a tough attitude on the mound and a need to go after hitters.
Molina and Matheny would only help him rediscover that aggressiveness. Don’t be surprised to see them try.
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