It seems incredible.
We have one of the most unpopular prime ministers in British history.
His government is discredited, tired and flat out of ideas.
In twelve years, Labour have achieved little to nothing.
Public spending has doubled from £350 billion to £750 billion a year yet our public services aren't getting any better: education is a disaster zone, immigration is out of control, our politically-correct police have lost the respect of most people, our care for the elderly should be a source of national shame and millions who could work find life easier living off benefits.
Also there were a couple of dodgy wars and we are drowning in debt.
Yet in spite of all this, the Tories are struggling and Labour are closing the gap in the opinion polls.
Of course, it still looks like Labour will lose the next election.
But one thing is clear, the Tories are certainly not winning.
Up at Tory HQ they're probably putting the finishing touches to their next expensive poster campaign, after the last one so spectacularly misfired.
It's unlikely that Labour are quaking in their boots.
After all, they managed to turn the Tories' story about economic responsibility into an improvised explosive device that went off in Cameron's and Osborne's faces.
But then Lord Mandelson probably has more cunning in his little finger than the whole Tory party put together.
The problem is that Labour now have a very clear and simple message for the next election 'the Tories will wreck the recovery'.
Yet nobody outside, and probably not even inside, Tory HQ seems to have a clue what the Conservatives stand for.
Labour's political machine is battle-hardened and willing to use any trick to survive.
In comparison, the Conservatives look naïve and clueless.
And every time the Tories do put their heads above the parapet with their latest poorly-thought-through policy idea, Labour's cannons blast them leaving the Tories dazed and shell-shocked.
If David Cameron and his acolytes are to take the fight to Labour, then they need one clear and simple message, one slogan they can keep repeating from now till the election.
This should not be some new half-baked policy idea which Labour can rubbish.
Instead it must be something which unequivocally demonstrates that Brown's administration is unfit to govern the country any longer.
The slogan that the Tories should use is probably obvious to everyone outside Tory HQ.
From now till the election, the Tories must drive home one single message - 'Gordon Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain '.
Advertisers know that to sell a product or idea, you need one simple consistent message that people can understand and feel is right.
'Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain ' should be that message.
Everything else the Tories say, from underfunding our troops to the rise of the benefits culture to problems in health, education and policing should then be linked to this one central message 'Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain'.
In 2007, when Brown funked calling an election, the Tories brilliantly managed to brand him 'Bottler Brown.
But since then, Cameron and his gang have hardly managed to lay a finger on Brown or the rest of his increasingly shambolic and dysfunctional government.
Until the Tories realise the need for this one single-minded message 'Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain ', they will continue to flounder and be wrong-footed by Labour's electoral machine.
Brown may lose the next election.
But Cameron is absolutely not winning it.
We have one of the most unpopular prime ministers in British history.
His government is discredited, tired and flat out of ideas.
In twelve years, Labour have achieved little to nothing.
Public spending has doubled from £350 billion to £750 billion a year yet our public services aren't getting any better: education is a disaster zone, immigration is out of control, our politically-correct police have lost the respect of most people, our care for the elderly should be a source of national shame and millions who could work find life easier living off benefits.
Also there were a couple of dodgy wars and we are drowning in debt.
Yet in spite of all this, the Tories are struggling and Labour are closing the gap in the opinion polls.
Of course, it still looks like Labour will lose the next election.
But one thing is clear, the Tories are certainly not winning.
Up at Tory HQ they're probably putting the finishing touches to their next expensive poster campaign, after the last one so spectacularly misfired.
It's unlikely that Labour are quaking in their boots.
After all, they managed to turn the Tories' story about economic responsibility into an improvised explosive device that went off in Cameron's and Osborne's faces.
But then Lord Mandelson probably has more cunning in his little finger than the whole Tory party put together.
The problem is that Labour now have a very clear and simple message for the next election 'the Tories will wreck the recovery'.
Yet nobody outside, and probably not even inside, Tory HQ seems to have a clue what the Conservatives stand for.
Labour's political machine is battle-hardened and willing to use any trick to survive.
In comparison, the Conservatives look naïve and clueless.
And every time the Tories do put their heads above the parapet with their latest poorly-thought-through policy idea, Labour's cannons blast them leaving the Tories dazed and shell-shocked.
If David Cameron and his acolytes are to take the fight to Labour, then they need one clear and simple message, one slogan they can keep repeating from now till the election.
This should not be some new half-baked policy idea which Labour can rubbish.
Instead it must be something which unequivocally demonstrates that Brown's administration is unfit to govern the country any longer.
The slogan that the Tories should use is probably obvious to everyone outside Tory HQ.
From now till the election, the Tories must drive home one single message - 'Gordon Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain '.
Advertisers know that to sell a product or idea, you need one simple consistent message that people can understand and feel is right.
'Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain ' should be that message.
Everything else the Tories say, from underfunding our troops to the rise of the benefits culture to problems in health, education and policing should then be linked to this one central message 'Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain'.
In 2007, when Brown funked calling an election, the Tories brilliantly managed to brand him 'Bottler Brown.
But since then, Cameron and his gang have hardly managed to lay a finger on Brown or the rest of his increasingly shambolic and dysfunctional government.
Until the Tories realise the need for this one single-minded message 'Brown is the man who bankrupted Britain ', they will continue to flounder and be wrong-footed by Labour's electoral machine.
Brown may lose the next election.
But Cameron is absolutely not winning it.
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