The process of making money betting horse races is very simple, just pick the winner, right? Wrong, in fact nothing could be farther from the truth.
Ask yourself this one question, "How do professional horse players make a profit?" The answer is that they do it by collecting more than they spend at the betting windows.
I know that sounds simplistic, but it is true.
How do they do that? Are they just better at picking winners than other people? The answer to that question is, no.
In fact, professional horse players don't necessarily have a higher win average than other handicappers.
They just find good bets.
The wagers they choose have a positive outcome because when they do win, they collect more money than they've spent, not just on that one bet, of course, but on all the bets it took to reach that one winner.
For instance, if they make a certain win wager ten times and collect twice, they will make money if the winners pay at least 9-2.
For instance, if each winner pays $11 and there are two in the series, then $11 x 2 = $22.
So a base wager of $2 on each race will cost $20 for ten races and the pro will collect $22.
That's a 10% profit.
It may not sound glamorous but in the real world, making ten percent betting on horses is not shabby.
Obviously to be a professional horseplayer you need two things.
A large bankroll and the knowledge to accurately judge a horse's chances of winning.
Statistics can be helpful but also misleading.
For instance, we know that about 80% of winners come from the top three horses in the morning line.
We also know that 70% of winners had one of the top three speed ratings in his or her last race.
So it seems that if you find a horse in the top three odds and the top three speed ratings it has a very good chance of winning, right? Actually, those two statistics when combined do not strengthen the case for the horse.
The way we arrive at the actual chances of a winner being in the top three of both categories is by multiplying those two statistics.
So we use the equation,.
80 x.
70 =.
56.
That means the chances of a horse actually winning the race and being in the top three is little more than fifty - fifty.
You will also find that those horses who have those attributes are usually bet down to ridiculous odds.
Usually, within the top three horses in the race, at least two will qualify for both categories.
Therefore, you would have to bet on four horses, two in each race, to actually have a winner.
You will find that they are usually not profitable wagers with that probability.
Professionals find horses with other attributes and bet them to win knowing that the horses that I just mentioned, the ones with such obvious attributes, will be bet down to such low odds, the risk will far outweigh the odds making them unprofitable bets.
If you truly want to make money, stop looking at the obvious and find ways to beat those horses.
Ask yourself this one question, "How do professional horse players make a profit?" The answer is that they do it by collecting more than they spend at the betting windows.
I know that sounds simplistic, but it is true.
How do they do that? Are they just better at picking winners than other people? The answer to that question is, no.
In fact, professional horse players don't necessarily have a higher win average than other handicappers.
They just find good bets.
The wagers they choose have a positive outcome because when they do win, they collect more money than they've spent, not just on that one bet, of course, but on all the bets it took to reach that one winner.
For instance, if they make a certain win wager ten times and collect twice, they will make money if the winners pay at least 9-2.
For instance, if each winner pays $11 and there are two in the series, then $11 x 2 = $22.
So a base wager of $2 on each race will cost $20 for ten races and the pro will collect $22.
That's a 10% profit.
It may not sound glamorous but in the real world, making ten percent betting on horses is not shabby.
Obviously to be a professional horseplayer you need two things.
A large bankroll and the knowledge to accurately judge a horse's chances of winning.
Statistics can be helpful but also misleading.
For instance, we know that about 80% of winners come from the top three horses in the morning line.
We also know that 70% of winners had one of the top three speed ratings in his or her last race.
So it seems that if you find a horse in the top three odds and the top three speed ratings it has a very good chance of winning, right? Actually, those two statistics when combined do not strengthen the case for the horse.
The way we arrive at the actual chances of a winner being in the top three of both categories is by multiplying those two statistics.
So we use the equation,.
80 x.
70 =.
56.
That means the chances of a horse actually winning the race and being in the top three is little more than fifty - fifty.
You will also find that those horses who have those attributes are usually bet down to ridiculous odds.
Usually, within the top three horses in the race, at least two will qualify for both categories.
Therefore, you would have to bet on four horses, two in each race, to actually have a winner.
You will find that they are usually not profitable wagers with that probability.
Professionals find horses with other attributes and bet them to win knowing that the horses that I just mentioned, the ones with such obvious attributes, will be bet down to such low odds, the risk will far outweigh the odds making them unprofitable bets.
If you truly want to make money, stop looking at the obvious and find ways to beat those horses.
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