When figuring pace in a race the smart handicapper tries to imagine the scenario and pictures how the race will shape up.
He may check pace figures and speed points as well as watching replays of races to determine where each runner will be at different calls of the race in order to determine which horse(s) will have something left in the tank, so to speak, coming down the stretch.
It's common to look for match-ups where horses will pair off and try to run with one another through portions of the race.
Based on running style and class a picture of the race develops.
Factoring in the form cycle also plays a part in finding the horse or horses you feel will be true contenders.
Once you have a contender list and you've figured out a hierarchy, you can finally start thinking about value.
But as you make your pace calculations you must also work the jockey into the race.
What will the rider do to influence how the horse runs? Will the pilot allow the horse to run freely and to make its own pace or will the rider try to change the way the horse naturally runs? Post position has an effect on the way the race is run.
Part of the reason for that is that the horse will be in a certain position when the race starts.
Maidens may not like running near the rail.
Horses breaking from an extreme outside post in a short sprint may be hung out very wide going into the turn and therefore will have to cover a lot more ground than inside runners.
In a route the rider will often throttle back a horse that has an outside post, taking it over to the rail after the field has cleared out.
This will force that horse to spot the field several lengths and that means it will have to make up ground late in the race.
Before you wager on a horse that has early speed ask yourself how much that speed will help from today's post.
Slow starters that close well often do better on the outside than the front runners do because they don't have to gun to the front and clear the field in order to get to the rail for the shorter trip through the turn.
Slow starters on the rail often get behind a wall of horses and then must weave through them late in the race.
Therefore, before assuming that early speed helps your contender in a race, think about how the post will affect that runner's chances of making the lead and getting the shorter trip.
He may check pace figures and speed points as well as watching replays of races to determine where each runner will be at different calls of the race in order to determine which horse(s) will have something left in the tank, so to speak, coming down the stretch.
It's common to look for match-ups where horses will pair off and try to run with one another through portions of the race.
Based on running style and class a picture of the race develops.
Factoring in the form cycle also plays a part in finding the horse or horses you feel will be true contenders.
Once you have a contender list and you've figured out a hierarchy, you can finally start thinking about value.
But as you make your pace calculations you must also work the jockey into the race.
What will the rider do to influence how the horse runs? Will the pilot allow the horse to run freely and to make its own pace or will the rider try to change the way the horse naturally runs? Post position has an effect on the way the race is run.
Part of the reason for that is that the horse will be in a certain position when the race starts.
Maidens may not like running near the rail.
Horses breaking from an extreme outside post in a short sprint may be hung out very wide going into the turn and therefore will have to cover a lot more ground than inside runners.
In a route the rider will often throttle back a horse that has an outside post, taking it over to the rail after the field has cleared out.
This will force that horse to spot the field several lengths and that means it will have to make up ground late in the race.
Before you wager on a horse that has early speed ask yourself how much that speed will help from today's post.
Slow starters that close well often do better on the outside than the front runners do because they don't have to gun to the front and clear the field in order to get to the rail for the shorter trip through the turn.
Slow starters on the rail often get behind a wall of horses and then must weave through them late in the race.
Therefore, before assuming that early speed helps your contender in a race, think about how the post will affect that runner's chances of making the lead and getting the shorter trip.
SHARE
