Apparently Ted Cruz is announcing a bid for the White House on Monday, March 23rd. This is both a surprise and, in my estimation, a mistake. I write this as someone who quite likes Ted Cruz, his unabashed conservatism, his anti-establishment streak, and as someone who hopes he stays around for a very long time. More about his announcement:

"Sen. Ted Cruz plans to announce Monday that he will run for president of the United States, accelerating his already rapid three-year rise from a tea party insurgent in Texas into a divisive political force in Washington.

Cruz will launch a presidential bid outright rather than form an exploratory committee, said senior advisers with direct knowledge of his plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity because an official announcement had not been made yet. They say he is done exploring and is now ready to become the first Republican presidential candidate."

 

Too Much, Too Soon

Ted Cruz is a very smart guy. He's successfully argued in front of the United States Supreme Court and has an impressive legal resume. But his executive experience is non-existent. He has won one election, ever. And that was in Texas, where he slightly underperformed Mitt Romney in 2012. If he actually announces on Monday, he will have a just 2 years and 2 months of experience in the US Senate, with little to show for it. It just seems a little too ambitious a little too soon. His rise would mirror President Obama's, who also was first elected to the US Senate just four years before becoming President and who had very limited experience working in Washington. (He was also born in Canada, so prepare for a lot of birther jokes.)

 

A Marginalized Voice

Ted Cruz has become easy to ignore. Yes, that is a sentence that might not sit well with many conservatives who love Cruz, but it is one that is true. His look-at-me style is good at getting attention and gaining a sizable chunk of conservative voters who are rightfully tired of being let down by their party, but it does not play well to many parts of the Republican party.

It plays worse to the voting public at large. Meanwhile, he has given the media way too much to work with and, as a result, is easily dismissed in conversation. Trying the comedian route too frequently is good for soundbites, but less helpful if you want to be considered a serious guy in a dangerous time. He has been removed from consideration as one of the "logical voices" of the Republican Party. Sure, that sounds unfair. But life isn't fair, and politics is not kind.

It isn't Cruz's conservatism that is hurting him. It's his singular attempts to continuously appeal to people like me: hardcore conservatives. I like that he frequently objects to Mitch McConnell. I like that isn't a yes man to the establishment. I like that he votes no on "bi-partisan" bill where the only agreement between the two parties is the Democrats get what they want. But the way he goes about his job is much different than anyone else, and it's a difference that has rendered him ineffective too frequently. It's too flashy. To most people, it seems unproductive.

 

Crowding the Field

There is a reason Ted Cruz will be the first to enter the race: he is starting to feel crowded out in a field that doesn't yet have a single contender. The establishment is coalescing around Jeb Bush, while Scott Walker is pulling strong interest from conservatives and some establishment types. Marco Rubio has the biggest potential to break out. (And while Rubio is also a freshman Senator, his legislative history is stronger while his legislative approach is far more compelling to a wider range of people.) Then there is Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon who actually is ahead of Cruz in most polls.

So, by announcing first Cruz hopes to get a bump in excitement. Big names who become candidates usually get a bump in polls as they begin to feel "real" to primary voters. And he needs some excitement. Despite his popularity within the tea party movement and high name recognition, Cruz is in a distant, low single-digit 8th place in the Real Clear Politics national average. He's averaging an even worse 9th in Iowa, a bit of a surprise given their voting tendencies, and a dead last 2% in South Carolina, another state he should do well in, in theory.

Perhaps this is just Cruz being Cruz. Is he just seeking out a little more attention and building his name for a future run. A serious run seems like a bit of a stretch for 2016. It seems a bit too ambitious. It seems very impatient. But, should Hillary run and win in 2016, the next election is just around the corner. Given how difficult it is to beat an incumbent President, maybe that would be his time, And maybe, in such an instance, he would actual be an ideal candidate.