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Pakistan tests missile: still no arms race in Asia?

Pakistan has denoted a nuclear-capable ballistic missile in the Indian Ocean. Less than a week after India test-fired a missile capable of hitting China, Pakistan test-fired a missile capable of hitting India. Pakistan's Shaheen-1A is an intermediate range ballistic missile.

Military officials declined to specify the range of the missile. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is believed by some analysts to be the fastest growing in the world. Pakistan's latest launch comes amid a likely North Korean test, concerns over Iranian uranium enrichment, India test-firing a missile and China ramping up military spending.

Currently five countries are recognised by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as lawful nuclear weapons states. They are the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: China, France, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. The non-signatory nuclear weapons states are India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.

It is almost certain that China has helped fund Pakistan's nuclear programme, as well as North Korea's. Tensions in Asia are rising fast. India has already purchased a Russian-made nuclear submarine as a replacement for its old Soviet era submarine. India will lease the 630 million sub for 10 years while developing its own. The sub will be deployed on India's east coast. This is telling €" it means that China, rather than Pakistan, is the threat.

Despite attempts by US politicians, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to assure the world that America is in control of events in the Asia-Pacific region, it looks as if not just the US but the Western world generally, is becoming impotent to significantly alter the course of events overseas.

Pakistan's main threat remains India even if India's is now China. Politicians across the board are quick to jump on rumours of militarisation. Indian General JJ Singh reacted angrily to suggestions that India and China could come to blows. €I must tell these futurologists and experts to stop this nonsense of predicting a Indo-China war, first in 2010, then in 2012 and now in 2020. They will be proved wrong as we will not fight. We are competitors, not rivals,€ said Gen Singh.

Recently Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari met, a sign some hoped of more cordial relations between the two old rivals. Singh described the talks as €fruitful€ and added that €relations between India and Pakistan should become normal. That's our common desire.€

For his part, Zardari €" who extended an accepted invitation for Singh to visit Pakistan €" said that, €we would like to have better relations with India. We have spoken on all topics that we could have spoken about.€ In the midst of all this, Russia is trying to navigate a close geopolitical relationship with China, balanced with a close business relationship with India.

Pakistan and India have somewhat given more impetus both for North Korea to continue its weapons programme and for Iran to possibly continue to develop arms. Asia is now the most nuclearised continent on earth, with 5 nuclear weapons states (6 counting Russia and 7 counting Iran, should it develop nuclear capabilities). This compares to 1 in the Americas and 2 in Europe (3 counting Russia).

At the same time as economic forces tilt east, so too are military forces. India has positioned itself (with significant backing from the White House) to balance Chinese dominance. However India's economic and military might is dwarfed by China's right now. India still has one-third of the world's malnourished children, with poverty levels comparable to Nigeria.

An arms race between China and India could provoke clashes over the disputed territory of Arunachal Pradesh. It could also see strained relations with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. China has supplied military hardware to and, cemented economic ties with, India's three South Asian neighbours.

Just as Europe remorselessly transforms into the world's largest retirement home and America continues to base its economy on shopping, the world outside is becoming more unstable and fractured. Pakistan's nuclear test is just the beginning, if such trends continue.
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