According to the Manheim Used Car Market Report for 2013, auto auction volume is going to increase in 2013, which demonstrates there is an increasing supply in used cars for sale in 2013. That is always a good thing for the consumer when supply grows to exceed demand.
The report looks back to 2012 and states, "Estimates of NAAA-member auto auction sales in 2012 range from down 2% to virtually no change.
Thus, total sales were in the range of 7.5 million to 7.7 million units. Dealer consignment volumes rose more than 5%, but that was offset by an 8% decline in commercial consignment."
Manheim is the world's leading provider of vehicle remarketing services. In 2012, Manheim handled nearly 8 million used vehicles at auto auction, facilitating transactions representing more than $50 billion in value, according to its website.
The report continued, "Looking ahead to 2013, we believe auction volumes will increase by 5% to a level of approximately 7.9 million units. With close to 10 million units sold in 2003, compared to 7.5 million in 2012, the surface-level decline of 25% could be alarming to some.
"It is critically important, however, to understand the underlying factors that contributed to those high volumes in 2003. They were the result of prior years when leases were written with inflated residuals, loans were made to subprime borrowers who simply passed a "mirror-test" and were given a loan-to-value ratio of 150% or more, incentives were dispersed willy-nilly to attract buyers, and manufacturers used rental car companies as a relief valve for excess production."
Remember those days? Manufacturers were practically dumping product on rental car lots for low prices. Now pricing is more reflective of actual cost and, as a result, rental car rates are higher.
By the way, as someone who used to work in the rental car industry, I know first hand that consumers hold rental cars in low regard. While that's not entirely an accurate view, buying a used rental car can be a good thing because of that flawed perception.
As Manheim points out from a historical perspective, "While these practices supported new vehicle sales at the time, and boosted auto auction volumes shortly thereafter, they were destructive to the health of the auto industry. In fact, they brought two manufacturers to bankruptcy."
That would be GM and Chrysler, who are now healthier than ever, even though there is a creeping trend in the industry towards more new car fleet sales, according to Christie Schweinsberg, senior editor at WardsAuto.com. Again, that's not a bad thing because the increased fleet sales mean lower residual values on used cars for consumers.
Manheim said in its report, "Looking ahead, we believe industry growth will be built on solid business practices. Leasing is being done right, lenders have become more aggressive, new vehicles are being sold with an upfront profit, and inventories are being kept in check." Some might quibble with that last point in light of what Schweinsberg is reporting."
Here is the important tidbit for consumers to know. "We expect used vehicle inventory from all sources will increase in 2013. Off-rental supplies will grow by more than 200,000 units, with a greater-than-ever mix of diversified inventory. Off- lease supplies will increase by close to 200,000 units, driven by the earlier rise in lease originations from the trough of 2008. Repossession volumes will grow by approximately 100,000 units. And dealer consignment will grow for the fourth consecutive year in concert with the continued growth in both new and used vehicle retail sales."
This is shaping up to be a good year for consumers in the used car marketplace. Prices are remaining fairly steady (except in the truck segment) and auto auction supply is going to be good for the remainder of the year.
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