I wrote this in December of 2009 in response to requests from several friends soliciting my views on Afghanistan.
I have strong opinions on Afghanistan, which has a centuries long history of invaders and occupiers being consumed by the mountainous terrain and the inpenetrable tribal culture that exists there.
The people there, unlike citizens of most countries, do not consider themselves Afghans.
They consider themselves members of their tribe or clan first and foremost, then inhabitants of the specific region, valley or village they live in, and lastly - they acknowledge they live in a country named Afghanistan.
Our entire efforts there are based on the notion that if we kill enough Taliban or Al Qaeda that the Afghan people will ultimately unite and build a nation like ours or most western countries.
This will never happen - certainly not in our lifetime.
For that reason alone we should reconsider what our national interest our over there and see if we are going about them the right way.
From a military perspective, the Bush administration (and the Generals) failed to set clearly defined goals at the onset.
In other words, what were our forces trying to achieve - kill Al Qaeda, rid the major cities of the Taliban, etc? Once these goals were achieved the mission could be declared successful and we could pull out.
They never did this, repeating a critical mistake made at the start of Vietnam.
As time passed nobody could really state that U.
S.
forces were there to do A, B, and C and once done the mission was complete.
It's a classic mistake and we are once again seeing the results of what happens when a nation rushes to war without thinking through the mission, desired end state and exit strategy.
The Army General over there, Stan McChrystal, is a superb leader - one of the best our country has.
He is pursuing a counter insurgency strategy, which is the correct strategy if you aim to rid the nation of Taliban and Al Qaeda and turn it over to the Afghan government and people so they can build a nation.
Go back to my initial paragraph and you'll see that I think that the Afghan government and people are incapable of even comprehending such a thing, much less actually achieving it! McChrystal has asked for 40,000 troops to conduct his counter insurgency strategy.
Obama and crew do not want to send the troops because they fear what more casualties could potentially do to their reelection chances (yes - like all politicians, that is their primary concern - staying in office) so they are advocating using less troops.
You can't fight a counter insurgency without giving McChrystal the troops he asked for.
Obama also cannot afford to go into the next election having refused giving a military commander the resources he's asked for - no president has ever done this.
He also knows if he refuses McChrystal's request that McChrystal will likley resign in protest - something that would be a fatal blow to an Obama reelection.
It is also likely that General Petraeus, the leader of Central Command would also resign.
Obama knows this and most likely will send the troops, but then tie the hands of the Generals by insisting on excessively restricted operations designed to primarily prevent American casualties.
Obviously, if the troops don't leave their fortified bases they won't get hurt, but they also won't kill many bad guys and thus will not achieve McChrystal's mission.
Eventually the American public will tire of sending so many troops there (like they did late in the Vietnam war) and Congress will cut off funding and the troops will be brought home - never having been able to actually pursue the enemy in earnest.
As always, the military will be blamed and the politicians will call for numerous investigations and senate inquiries to see how a group of ragtag, uneducated tribal goat herders fought the U.
S military to a draw.
This happened after the Korean War, Vietnam and after Beirut as well.
In addition, it is rumored that Petraeus is considering a run for President in 2012.
Obama knows this and you can believe he's very concerned about this and is trying not to give a formidable opponent any ammunition for use during that election campaign.
Thus, Obama and team base every move and decision on politics and their political survival vice what is necessary to achieve military victory in Afghanistan (which has never been defined by the military, Runsfeld, Gates, Bush, Obama, etc).
It's a mess and I fear that it will ultimately end pretty much like I am predicting it will.
The tragedy is that in the meantime more young Americans will lose their lives or be maimed over there.
Thus, if I had my way, we'd declare victory, pull 90% of the forces out and let special operation forces continue to kill high value bad guys whenever they can be found.
I apologize if I sound a bit cynical.
After serving in combat and studying military operations in depth, it disgusts me to know how pathetic most of our political leaders are and how often their priorities are counter to what is best for the nation and those who are actually dodging bullets on a daily basis.
Well, that's about all for now.
I hope my thoughts provide some insights or perspective that you might not have been aware of based on your information sources.
I have strong opinions on Afghanistan, which has a centuries long history of invaders and occupiers being consumed by the mountainous terrain and the inpenetrable tribal culture that exists there.
The people there, unlike citizens of most countries, do not consider themselves Afghans.
They consider themselves members of their tribe or clan first and foremost, then inhabitants of the specific region, valley or village they live in, and lastly - they acknowledge they live in a country named Afghanistan.
Our entire efforts there are based on the notion that if we kill enough Taliban or Al Qaeda that the Afghan people will ultimately unite and build a nation like ours or most western countries.
This will never happen - certainly not in our lifetime.
For that reason alone we should reconsider what our national interest our over there and see if we are going about them the right way.
From a military perspective, the Bush administration (and the Generals) failed to set clearly defined goals at the onset.
In other words, what were our forces trying to achieve - kill Al Qaeda, rid the major cities of the Taliban, etc? Once these goals were achieved the mission could be declared successful and we could pull out.
They never did this, repeating a critical mistake made at the start of Vietnam.
As time passed nobody could really state that U.
S.
forces were there to do A, B, and C and once done the mission was complete.
It's a classic mistake and we are once again seeing the results of what happens when a nation rushes to war without thinking through the mission, desired end state and exit strategy.
The Army General over there, Stan McChrystal, is a superb leader - one of the best our country has.
He is pursuing a counter insurgency strategy, which is the correct strategy if you aim to rid the nation of Taliban and Al Qaeda and turn it over to the Afghan government and people so they can build a nation.
Go back to my initial paragraph and you'll see that I think that the Afghan government and people are incapable of even comprehending such a thing, much less actually achieving it! McChrystal has asked for 40,000 troops to conduct his counter insurgency strategy.
Obama and crew do not want to send the troops because they fear what more casualties could potentially do to their reelection chances (yes - like all politicians, that is their primary concern - staying in office) so they are advocating using less troops.
You can't fight a counter insurgency without giving McChrystal the troops he asked for.
Obama also cannot afford to go into the next election having refused giving a military commander the resources he's asked for - no president has ever done this.
He also knows if he refuses McChrystal's request that McChrystal will likley resign in protest - something that would be a fatal blow to an Obama reelection.
It is also likely that General Petraeus, the leader of Central Command would also resign.
Obama knows this and most likely will send the troops, but then tie the hands of the Generals by insisting on excessively restricted operations designed to primarily prevent American casualties.
Obviously, if the troops don't leave their fortified bases they won't get hurt, but they also won't kill many bad guys and thus will not achieve McChrystal's mission.
Eventually the American public will tire of sending so many troops there (like they did late in the Vietnam war) and Congress will cut off funding and the troops will be brought home - never having been able to actually pursue the enemy in earnest.
As always, the military will be blamed and the politicians will call for numerous investigations and senate inquiries to see how a group of ragtag, uneducated tribal goat herders fought the U.
S military to a draw.
This happened after the Korean War, Vietnam and after Beirut as well.
In addition, it is rumored that Petraeus is considering a run for President in 2012.
Obama knows this and you can believe he's very concerned about this and is trying not to give a formidable opponent any ammunition for use during that election campaign.
Thus, Obama and team base every move and decision on politics and their political survival vice what is necessary to achieve military victory in Afghanistan (which has never been defined by the military, Runsfeld, Gates, Bush, Obama, etc).
It's a mess and I fear that it will ultimately end pretty much like I am predicting it will.
The tragedy is that in the meantime more young Americans will lose their lives or be maimed over there.
Thus, if I had my way, we'd declare victory, pull 90% of the forces out and let special operation forces continue to kill high value bad guys whenever they can be found.
I apologize if I sound a bit cynical.
After serving in combat and studying military operations in depth, it disgusts me to know how pathetic most of our political leaders are and how often their priorities are counter to what is best for the nation and those who are actually dodging bullets on a daily basis.
Well, that's about all for now.
I hope my thoughts provide some insights or perspective that you might not have been aware of based on your information sources.
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