A NEW study has shown that 40 years from now, Britain will be a much more diverse society with ethnic minorities set to make up one fifth of the population.
According to experts at the University of Leeds, the ethnic minority share of the population is set to increase from eight per cent in 2001 to around 20 per cent in 2051.
Their study also predicts that the total UK population will soar from 59 million in 2001 to 78 million in 40 years.
"The ethnic make-up of UK's population is evolving significantly," said Professor Philip Rees, who led the project.
"Groups outside the white British majority are increasing in size and share, not just in the areas of initial migration, but throughout the country and our projections suggest that this trend is set to continue through to 2051."
The researchers also predict that ethnic minorities will move out of the most deprived local authorities and settle into more prosperous areas.
"At a regional level, ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived inner city areas to more affluent areas, which echoes the way white groups have migrated in the past. In particular, black and Asian populations in the least deprived local authorities will increase significantly."
White British and Irish groups are expected to grow very slowly, while immigration by Other Whites is projected to grow the fastest, boosted by people from Europe, the U.S. and Australasia coming into the UK.
The total number of people in the UK classed as white was predicted to fall from 92 per cent in 2009 to 79 per cent in 2051.
Meanwhile, traditional immigrant groups of south Asian origin – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – will grow rapidly in size, the researchers said.
To reach their findings, the Leeds team, according to Agence France Presse (AFP), used existing data on 16 different ethnic groups and built a computer model to project ethnic population trends for the future under a variety of different scenarios.
The three-year study provides annual population projections for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland until 2051.
But the authors admitted predicting migration trends remained difficult.
"It is impossible to predict exactly how people will move into, out of and within the country the coming decades as all of these trends are influenced by a whole range of socio-economic factors," explained Rees.
"However, our results suggest that overall we can look forward to being not only a more diverse nation, but one that is far more spatially integrated than at present."
The new coalition government plans to limit the number of non-EU migrants coming to live and work in Britain. An annual cap on migration is set to come into force next April.
Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives promised before the election to cut net migration back to the levels of the 1990s, when it was "tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands."
Immigration Minister Damian Green said: "Britain has always benefited from being outward-looking and having a population with diverse backgrounds.
"Problems arise in periods when the population changes too fast for comfort.
"That's why the government wants to control the level of immigration so that we can benefit from the arrival of talented people from all over the world without putting pressure on our public services."
According to experts at the University of Leeds, the ethnic minority share of the population is set to increase from eight per cent in 2001 to around 20 per cent in 2051.
Their study also predicts that the total UK population will soar from 59 million in 2001 to 78 million in 40 years.
"The ethnic make-up of UK's population is evolving significantly," said Professor Philip Rees, who led the project.
"Groups outside the white British majority are increasing in size and share, not just in the areas of initial migration, but throughout the country and our projections suggest that this trend is set to continue through to 2051."
The researchers also predict that ethnic minorities will move out of the most deprived local authorities and settle into more prosperous areas.
"At a regional level, ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived inner city areas to more affluent areas, which echoes the way white groups have migrated in the past. In particular, black and Asian populations in the least deprived local authorities will increase significantly."
White British and Irish groups are expected to grow very slowly, while immigration by Other Whites is projected to grow the fastest, boosted by people from Europe, the U.S. and Australasia coming into the UK.
The total number of people in the UK classed as white was predicted to fall from 92 per cent in 2009 to 79 per cent in 2051.
Meanwhile, traditional immigrant groups of south Asian origin – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – will grow rapidly in size, the researchers said.
To reach their findings, the Leeds team, according to Agence France Presse (AFP), used existing data on 16 different ethnic groups and built a computer model to project ethnic population trends for the future under a variety of different scenarios.
The three-year study provides annual population projections for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland until 2051.
But the authors admitted predicting migration trends remained difficult.
"It is impossible to predict exactly how people will move into, out of and within the country the coming decades as all of these trends are influenced by a whole range of socio-economic factors," explained Rees.
"However, our results suggest that overall we can look forward to being not only a more diverse nation, but one that is far more spatially integrated than at present."
The new coalition government plans to limit the number of non-EU migrants coming to live and work in Britain. An annual cap on migration is set to come into force next April.
Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives promised before the election to cut net migration back to the levels of the 1990s, when it was "tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands."
Immigration Minister Damian Green said: "Britain has always benefited from being outward-looking and having a population with diverse backgrounds.
"Problems arise in periods when the population changes too fast for comfort.
"That's why the government wants to control the level of immigration so that we can benefit from the arrival of talented people from all over the world without putting pressure on our public services."
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