In the history of trading, multitudes of traders have dreamed about forecasting, and many spend much of their waking hours trying to work out how to forecast the markets.
A well known trader states that the right hand side of the chart is blank because no one knows what is going to happen in the future.
Makes sense to me.
I know that there are Gann traders out there and Elliot wave people, who place great store in the ability to forecast market movements.
My point is you need to decide which camp you are in.
But I can state with complete certainty that if you try and start your trading career as a forecaster then you won't be around the markets for long! As a day trader you are watching the charts.
Watching the price action and the volume and your favourite indicators.
You are looking out for important economic data releases which can have an immediate and dramatic effect on the markets in a narrow time frame.
Even if you take advanced courses which focus on forecasting, you must know the basic methods of trading.
The best way to day trade in your early days is to trade a mechanical method.
There are many different mechanical trading methods.
I'm assuming you have come to trading via an educational package.
Within that training will be the mechanical methods which are favoured by that writer of the course.
You can paper trade these methods to see if they work consistently.
If you are satisfied then you trade.
You don't second guess the market, you don't try and forecast, you don't hesitate and you don't change your mind because of some financial reporter on morning television.
As a day trader you must then take the trade as it presents or you will find it increasingly more and more difficult to trade.
If you are a forecaster and you have faith in your predictions then again you must take the trade.
Because if you don't you do not have enough faith and more and more doubt will beset you.
The benefit to me of being a trader is that I just have to look back a short period in time, to see any levels of support and resistance forming.
I just have to have the moving averages of my choice to make the appropriate movements, and I have a trade.
Forecasting is very difficult over the short term.
But don't be fooled that if you are using technical indicators that you are not in fact trying to be a forecaster.
The trader looks at the indicators, watches the economic data and by just watching the price action you can see a level at which you are prepared to buy at or sell at.
As traders we are looking for high probably trades and then be committed enough to take that trade when it occurs.