Are you an NBA fan who likes to have a bit of skin in the game? If you follow NBA picks in your weekly betting, you may have noticed that professional odds makers often recommend betting the underdogs against the spread in several games each week. If you've ever wondered why an underdog bet gives you good odds of winning against the spread in NBA games, here is what professional odds makers know that you probably don't know.
Past Performance Is Not the Same as Future Results
Statistics are important, but a lot of bettors base their expectations on the last few games. The Heat may have won their last game by 20 points, but that's no indicator of how they'll do in their next game, even against the same team. The odds makers don't base their NBA picks on the last game or even the last few games. In fact, they have access to information that the general public never sees, including what types of adjustments coaches are making to shore up defense and kick offense into high gear.
Betting on the Money Line Returns Less
When you bet straight on the money line, you either accept a higher risk or a lower payoff. Betting against the spread is a way to even the odds and increase your payouts. Since those bets are the ones that often have the highest value, you'll often see NBA picks, NFL picks and NCAA college football picks for bets on underdogs against the line.
Home Court Advantage is Overrated
When it comes to NBA picks, most professional odds makers don't put much stock in home court advantage. That may fly in the face of everything you think you know about statistics, but the fact is that home court advantage is overrated. Don't believe it? In the 2010-2011 season, the home team won just 60 percent of its games, while the road team won 40 percent. When you add in the point spread, the home team covered the spread in only 47 percent of the games while road teams covered the spread 52 percent of the time. Not sure what way to bet on a game? Check your NBA picks and follow the advice when betting against the spread.
Bet Good Teams to Win and Bad Teams to Lose on the Road
What about on the road? The top 10 NBA teams win about half of their games on the road. The bottom 10 NBA teams win less than 20 percent of their road games. The best NBA picks services will usually advise you to bet on the bottom 10 teams to lose on the road and the top 10 teams to win.
Don't Bet with Your Instincts
If you bet with your instincts, you're bound to lose. With the sheer number of games played in the NBA each season, it's practically a full-time job to keep track of all the important stats on all the teams. If you're going to bet, you'll do well to check with the top stats hounds and odds makers and follow their top NBA picks, especially if you're betting against the spread.
Past Performance Is Not the Same as Future Results
Statistics are important, but a lot of bettors base their expectations on the last few games. The Heat may have won their last game by 20 points, but that's no indicator of how they'll do in their next game, even against the same team. The odds makers don't base their NBA picks on the last game or even the last few games. In fact, they have access to information that the general public never sees, including what types of adjustments coaches are making to shore up defense and kick offense into high gear.
Betting on the Money Line Returns Less
When you bet straight on the money line, you either accept a higher risk or a lower payoff. Betting against the spread is a way to even the odds and increase your payouts. Since those bets are the ones that often have the highest value, you'll often see NBA picks, NFL picks and NCAA college football picks for bets on underdogs against the line.
Home Court Advantage is Overrated
When it comes to NBA picks, most professional odds makers don't put much stock in home court advantage. That may fly in the face of everything you think you know about statistics, but the fact is that home court advantage is overrated. Don't believe it? In the 2010-2011 season, the home team won just 60 percent of its games, while the road team won 40 percent. When you add in the point spread, the home team covered the spread in only 47 percent of the games while road teams covered the spread 52 percent of the time. Not sure what way to bet on a game? Check your NBA picks and follow the advice when betting against the spread.
Bet Good Teams to Win and Bad Teams to Lose on the Road
What about on the road? The top 10 NBA teams win about half of their games on the road. The bottom 10 NBA teams win less than 20 percent of their road games. The best NBA picks services will usually advise you to bet on the bottom 10 teams to lose on the road and the top 10 teams to win.
Don't Bet with Your Instincts
If you bet with your instincts, you're bound to lose. With the sheer number of games played in the NBA each season, it's practically a full-time job to keep track of all the important stats on all the teams. If you're going to bet, you'll do well to check with the top stats hounds and odds makers and follow their top NBA picks, especially if you're betting against the spread.
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